Latin America, facing a complex political scenario in 2023

The outlook for Latin America in 2023 is not very encouraging, according to a report by German public television DW. While it is true that each country has its own reality, many of them will have similar challenges, for example, facing the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, high levels of inflation, the increase in violence, the migration crisis and the of the system of political representation, among others.

The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) recently reported that poverty increased in the region for the sixth consecutive year and that 200 million people are in this situation. It also projects an economic growth rate of just 1.3% for the region in 2023.

In conversation with DW, Farid Kahhat, professor of international relations at the Catholic University of Peru, pointed out that the biggest challenge for Latin America will be to face this "large number of external shocks" and estimated that "the region's ability to mitigate the effect of these unavoidable shocks appears to be quite limited.

This complex scenario "will increase the difficulties for governments to respond to the problems of the most vulnerable populations and could generate greater political instability in the area," Tatiana Benavides, a political scientist at Columbia University, told DW.

Meanwhile, Juan Pablo Luna, a doctor in political science from the University of North Carolina, told DW that the main challenge will be to improve the "lack of state capacity that manifests itself, from the weakness to confront the advance of organized crime, to the inability to implement public policies with a significant impact on people's lives, especially those most in need".

In addition to the factors mentioned, given the low credibility of political parties, strengthening democracy represents another great challenge for the continent. Denis Merklen, sociologist and director of the Institute for Higher Studies in Latin America (IHEAL) at the Sorbonne University, told DW that "the main challenge facing the continent is the threat that democracy as a political system is experiencing. It is a very serious crisis. deep, which goes beyond Latin America, but which manifests itself in the region in a very strong way".

The experts consulted believe that this phenomenon is clearly observed in the last 15 presidential elections, where the ruling party, regardless of political orientation, was defeated. For the specialist Benavides there is a "disconnection of the rulers with the citizen's demands, which is evidenced in the growing dissatisfaction of the population with the rulers and the institutions, and in the vote to punish the ruling parties."

Daniel Buquet, professor of political science at the University of the Republic of Uruguay, told DW a similar opinion: "We have a challenge that is not temporary, which is the defense and maintenance of democracy and, eventually, the improvement of the quality of the region's democratic politics, which is subject to permanent tension, pressure and threat".

According to analysts, corruption scandals, links to drug trafficking and moral and criminal accusations against political rivals discredit the political class and allow leaders to emerge who, in many cases, could pose a danger to the democratic system. Preventing this from happening means another great challenge for Latin America.

"It is necessary to renew the party structures and cadres and, especially, to reassess and create awareness among citizens about the important role of political parties for the functioning of democracy at a time when few believe in them. Otherwise, " the Peruvian crisis could be called upon to be repeated in other countries in the region," warned Benavides.

IHEAL's director, Merklen, has a much tougher opinion on this: "I would dare to say that the problem of representativeness is a minor problem and that the crisis we are going through is much deeper. The institutions lack legitimacy, not only the leaders or the political parties. The institutions are being questioned with great force".

"Not only are politicians distrusted, but also judges, doctors, university students, the press... So, the problem is enormously complex and there is a great threat that weighs on democratic systems," he added.

Buquet, who is also secretary general of the Latin American Association of Political Science (ALACIP), views with concern the low level of discussion among political leaders: "We have a serious problem in that the democratic debate is now subsumed in a discussion about who is or not a thief, but it turns out that all politicians treat their rivals as thieves. That helps this citizen perception that, indeed, all politicians are corrupt."

Therefore, he added, this "distances people from politicians, from parties, from good democratic politics and makes people say: 'someone is missing here, a strong leader to take charge.'"

For his part, Luna, who works as a professor at the Catholic University of Chile, believes that some politicians seek to "compete in a short-term logic, based on more personalist leaderships, with quite opportunistic logics that, somehow, continue weakening the institutional capacity to face the problems of the region".

The political scientist Benavides stressed that "the greater risk of this crisis of representation" could open "a direct door for the emergence of populist and authoritarian figures who capitalize on citizen discontent to win followers."

Experts fear that the methods used in countries like El Salvador by the right-wing populist president Nayib Bukele could be applied in other countries in the region.

Farid Kahhat, from the Catholic University of Peru, believes that measures such as the tax reforms promoted by the governments of Chile and Colombia, which in his opinion are at the level of OECD countries, are going "in the right direction" to try to solve these structural problems.

However, there is not much optimism about improvements on the continent: "I don't think there is anything specific to 2023 that can be done to reverse this structural situation, which requires systematic work for a long time and that the type of leadership we have, due to Due to the short-term restrictions it faces, it is very difficult for it to generate solutions," Luna predicted.

"It is possible that the situation of ungovernability will prevail in countries like Peru and Haiti. It remains to be seen if the wave of hybrid regimes that has particularly affected Central American countries, such as El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, spreads to other areas," he warned. Benavides. Nicaragua should not be forgotten, nor the dictatorships of Cuba and Venezuela.

Merklen, for his part, concludes by asking for attention to what is happening in Brazil: "You have to be very careful, there is a very big alarm situation. What happens with the Brazilian giant is of crucial importance. If the new government does not manages to channel the forces that the country contains, it could have devastating effects for the continent".

"Daniel Buquet, professor of political science at the University of the Republic of Uruguay, told DW a similar opinion: "We have a challenge that is not temporary, which is the defense and maintenance of democracy and, eventually, the improvement of the quality of the region's democratic politics, which is subject to permanent tension, pressure and threat".