Experts wonder if the new wave in China will create a dangerous variant of the virus

Could the rise of Covid-19 in China cause the emergence of a variant of the virus? Scientists aren't sure, but they worry about the possibility, which they certainly don't rule out. It would be similar to the Omicron variant that is already circulating there, or a combination of types or something else entirely, they assert in a note from the Associated Press agency.

“China has a huge population and limited immunity. And those seem to be the conditions for the emergence of a new variant,'' said Dr. Stuart Campbell Ray, an infectious disease expert at Johns Hopkins University. “Limited immunity” is a way of saying that in China, with 1.41 billion people, many have been partially vaccinated or not at all. Chinese vaccines are also the least effective and the only ones applied in the country.

Each new infection offers an opportunity for the virus to mutate, and the disease is spreading rapidly across China. The country of 1.41 billion people abruptly abandoned its "Covid zero" policy on December 7, after massive protests over the restrictions.

While vaccination rates are generally high, booster rates are not so high, especially among the elderly. And it is the elderly who are seen in crowded Chinese hospital wards in these days of emergency. Nationally manufactured vaccines are less effective than Western RNA technology (Pfizer and Moderna) and “viral vector” ones, such as the Russian Sputnik V and the English AstraZeneca. And many of the vaccines in China were administered more than a year ago, which means that immunity has almost completely waned.

The result is a breeding ground for the virus to transform. “When we see high infection rates, it's usually followed by the emergence of a new variant,'' said Stuart Campbell Ray.

About three years ago, the original version of the virus left Whuhan, China, and spread rapidly to the rest of the world in just a few weeks. Then the Alpha variant emerged, in Europe, and Delta, in India. Finally, Omicron arrived from South Africa, in November 2021, and its descendants or subvariants, which continue to overwhelm the world to date.

Dr. Shan-Lu Liu, who studies viruses at The Ohio State University, noted that several Omicron variants have been detected in China, including BF.7, which is highly adept at evading immunity and appears to be the one that is driving the new wave of infections.

Experts agree that a huge and particularly vulnerable population, like China's, could prompt the virus to change. Infectologist Ray compared the virus to a boxer who "learns to dodge the punches you throw at him and adapts to move around them." One big question mark is whether the new variant will cause more severe symptoms. Experts agree that there is no reason to think that the virus is getting milder over time.

"For the most part, the mildness of symptoms in the last six to 12 months in many parts of the world is due to immunity acquired from vaccines or infection, not because the virus has changed," Ray says.

In China, the majority of the population has never been exposed to the coronavirus due to the strict “Covid zero” policy, which involved total and mass quarantines. Chinese vaccines are based on outdated technology that produces fewer antibodies, compared to Western ones.

Given this reality, it will be necessary to see if the virus follows the same pattern of evolution in China as that which emerged in other parts of the world after the application of the vaccines, commented Dr. Gagandeep Kang, a virus researcher at Christian Medical College in Vellore, India. “There is a possibility that the evolutionary path is totally different,'' she added.

"For the most part, the mildness of symptoms in the last six to 12 months in many parts of the world is due to immunity acquired from vaccines or infection, not because the virus has changed," Ray says.